Up-to-date Presidential Election forecast
Want to keep up to date with the latest forecasts for the 2024 Presidential Election betweeen Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump? This map from 270 to Win is based on the Polymarket prediction market odds and is updated every four hours based on the latest data.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Want to go deeper?
- See The Economist’s Presidential Election forecast here.
- Make your own interactive map at ABC News here.
- Keep up to date with the FiveThirtyEight national polling average here.
Want to make a real difference in the election?
Vote Blue offers a range of opportunities to volunteer, from writing postcards and making phone calls to voters to knocking on doors in swing districts. No experience is necessary: we offer you all the training you need to be successful.